I really feel you. I failed 18 times trying to make moon bead exc with the same setup as you...but I guess it's just bad luck from our side.
You can try asking your girlfriend/wife or a lucky person to try it. It may not have connection about the rate but mine worked. I did alot of tries and never succeed until now. But when I asked my wife to try it for me, here's what happened.
13 tries and nothing. I don't understand what RF is trying to achieve by setting it this way. But I know what will happen in a few days when the event ends. Finally, it will effectively free me from 9d. For which I am slowly becoming more and more grateful. And it seems to me that I will not be the only one.
After 20x fails, I randomly tried one more time last night to get rid of the materials from my bag. Guess what, I succeed...